Simulating tree growth under changing climate: updating a management tool with the climate response recorded in tree rings

Abstract

The recovery of ecosystems after large-scale disturbance is uncertain, especially in the face of changing climate. Will ecosystems return to pre-disturbance state and if so, how long will it take? The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a widely used forestry growth and yield model, can be used to project stand development after disturbance, such as fire, as well as assess the risk of stands to such disturbance. FVS uses tree and plot data to simulate growth, mortality, and response to treatments for forest stands, and can project stand development under alternative scenarios. Under different climate scenarios, the current version of FVS models species-level response to changing climate based on species’ estimated climatic niche. In my Master’s work, I am updating the growth component of FVS to include tree-level responses to climate variation using tree-rings, which will give insight on the growth response of species after disturbance and under changing climate.